In our previous article, “Problem-Solving Method Using Cause-and-Effect Diagrams | Practical Steps for Effective PMs to Improve On-Site”, we explained how to visualize on-site problems and derive solutions from root causes.

In this follow-up article, we introduce a method for leveraging the Future Reality Tree to set goals and translate them into an execution plan. We will proceed through the following three steps, incorporating case studies from actual consulting engagements.

• Step1: Clarify "Intermediate Goals" with a Future Reality Tree
• Step2: How to Create an Actionable Improvement Plan
• Step3: Effect Verification and Revisiting Causal Relationships

A Future Reality Tree is a method that replaces the root causes in the current reality tree with desired states and maps out the causal relationships up to the goal. In this process, you set intermediate goals.

• Clarify checkpoints on the path to the goal
• Serve as a standard for all stakeholders to share progress
• Be used to prioritize and ensure consistency of measures

Note: If the connection between intermediate goals and the final goal is unclear, review the causal structure. Also, updating the current reality tree periodically allows you to adapt to changing on-site conditions.

For an improvement plan, it's important to break down ideas into “who will do what by when.”

1. Organize by impact and implementation difficulty
   → Prioritize measures that deliver significant short-term impact
2. Clarify required resources and skills
3. Create a roadmap (including mid- and long-term perspectives)
4. Appoint responsible parties and set deadlines

Key point: Short-term measures are implemented to deliver quick results, while long-term measures address structural issues at their root. Ideally, combine both.

To enhance the effectiveness of the plan, convert intermediate goals into quantitative metrics.

• Test automation rate: target 80% / actual 72%
• Emergency release count: within six months ≤ 3 / actual 5

If not achieved, check the following:

• Whether the causal relationship hypothesis is incorrect
• Whether there were flaws in the execution process
  Return to root cause analysis and revise the plan as necessary.

A client company had been working on process improvement for many years. However, management voiced concerns that “improvements were not taking hold.”

The business goals were to strengthen manufacturing capabilities and accelerate product commercialization. We were asked to analyze the structural issues hindering these objectives.

The current reality tree visualized the complex problem structures and negative spirals lurking within the organization. Through interviews and deliverable analyses, the following issues became clear:

1. Overload of development leaders
   Pending issues and reviews were delayed, making the leadership layer a bottleneck.
2. Tool management becoming a formality
   Redundant management in Redmine and Excel was occurring, exacerbating the workload.
3. Lack of talent development mechanisms
   Systematic skill development was not happening, resulting in underqualified team members.
4. Inadequate project management control
   Due to insufficient internal capabilities, there was increased wholesale outsourcing to partner companies, and lax subcontractor management led to frequent plan deviations.
5. Weak sense of ownership toward the product
   An increase in makeshift tasks contributed to a decline in quality.

When organizing the issues, they boiled down to two root causes: “overload of development leaders” and “insufficient product development capabilities.” These generated the following two negative spirals:

• Spiral 1
  Work overload → Decreased sense of responsibility → Turnover → Resource shortage
• Spiral 2
  Skill shortage → Quality decline → Increased defects → Higher failure costs

Based on the causal relationships transformed into “desired states,” we mapped out the formation of positive spirals and the path to the business goals. To break the negative spirals, we replaced them with the following “desired states”:

• Distribution of workload
• Skill enhancement for team members
• Establishment of a product development system with a strong sense of ownership

This enabled the formation of positive spirals and clarified the path to achieving the business goals.

To address the root causes, we examined and implemented the following solutions:

In the short term, we focused on removing bottlenecks; in the long term, we advanced structural improvements through development strategies.

In this article, we explained the process that starts with the future vision drawn in a cause-and-effect diagram and leads to problem-solving through the setting of intermediate goals and drafting of execution plans. To guide “visualized” problems toward “resolution,” a loop of execution and verification is essential.

Don’t stop at simply visualizing the problems. Translating solutions into action is the first step toward on-site improvement.